The Triangle region continues to experience remarkable population growth, outpacing most of the nation even as local rental prices have shown an unexpected downward trend since 2023.
Population Surge Continues Unabated
Recent Census Bureau data confirms what many residents already feel in their daily commutes and neighborhood expansions: the Triangle is growing at a blistering pace that far exceeds national averages.
Since 2020, the Raleigh-Cary metro area has expanded by an impressive 10.2%, reaching 1.6 million residents. Meanwhile, the Durham-Chapel Hill metro area grew by 6.6% to approximately 621,000 people. For perspective, the United States as a whole grew by just 2.6% during the same period.
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What’s Driving the Growth?
The Triangle’s population boom stems from both natural growth (more births than deaths) and migration:
This trend mirrors a national pattern, with the Census Bureau noting that international migration contributed nearly 2.7 million people to metro areas across the country between 2023 and 2024.
The Rental Market Paradox
What’s particularly intriguing about our region’s growth is that it has occurred alongside a cooling rental market. Despite the influx of new residents, rental prices have been trending downward since 2023, contradicting what basic supply and demand principles might suggest.
Industry analysts believe this rental decline likely bottomed out this winter, with early spring data showing signs of stabilization. This unusual pattern may be attributed to:
Important Steps to Rent Your Home Out from A to Z
Step by step checklist for getting a home rented, and link to the full property management guide
1 Consider strengths and weaknesses for your home and location and consider special strategies to utilize them. Is it a college area? If so, you’ll likely handle a lot differently from low income, or a suburb
2 Get the property in show-ready condition by handling repairs, but also low-cost aesthetic fixes like spray painting rusted AC grates, and other things that really stand out. A sure way to attract sub-par tenants and repel the rest is to show a home with unrepaired issues
3 Decide whether you’re going to allow pets or not. Before you decide, know that for most landlords it’s the single best thing you can do to increase your “bottom line” profit over the long term. More on this subject here
4 Set a rental rate that will balance a minor amount of time on market hassle, with monthly rate. Whether in the form of owner-occupied showings, stress, or vacancy. Most owners fail to properly account for these subtle but real costs, especially vacancy. Vacant homes are much more costly than most account for. We can provide a free rental rate estimate compiled by people, not an algorithm, here
Looking Ahead
As the Triangle continues to attract both domestic and international newcomers, the rental market appears poised for a correction. Prospective renters who secured leases during the winter months may have timed the market perfectly, locking in rates at their lowest point before an anticipated uptick.
The region’s growth trajectory may face new challenges as immigration policies shift under the Trump administration, potentially affecting the international migration that has been a significant driver of our population increases.
With North Carolina’s foreign-born population now comprising 12.2% of the state’s workforce (and even higher percentages in Wake and Durham counties at 14.5% and 15.2%, respectively), any changes to migration patterns could have substantial economic implications for our region’s continued expansion. To read more, visit The Triangle’s population continues to grow thanks to domestic and international migration – Axios Raleigh.
